Friday, April 30, 2010
The money game
Dino Rossi may, or may not, be running for the US Senate against Patty Murray this year. My pal Goldy’s most recent thoughts on the subject, posted this morning, indicates that the smarmy real estate huckster may be moving in the direction of running. Apparently, the dulcet tones of Big John Cornyn, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have begun to entice Dino into taking the plunge.
If Rossi runs, he’ll lose. If Rossi doesn’t run, Patty will win big. In other words, Senator Murray will definitely be reelected come November.
As long as he dithers and ponders, Dino Rossi can’t raise a dime to run for the Senate. Until he establishes a federal campaign committee, he cannot take in contributions. Even if he could transfer funds from his Washington campaign committee (which he can’t, because it’s illegal), that would amount to a pittance. According to his most recent PDC report in November 2009, his gubernatorial campaign had just under $9900 cash on hand. That’s hardly enough money to buy a couple of computers. And if Dino thinks he’ll be able to collect a pile of money from the NRSC, which Cornyn has undoubtedly promised him, he’s likely to find himself near the back of a long line of candidates. After all, the GOP has a lot of seats to defend—Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio—and many Democratic seats that are far more vulnerable than ours—Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania. With only $15 million in the bank, the NRSC isn’t going to open the vault for Dino.
So let’s say that Dino decides not to run, that he instead wants to make still another (losing) run for Governor. That would certainly make for an entertaining 2012 as Rossi and Rob McKenna fight it out to face off against Jay Inslee or possibly Lisa Brown. It would also make for a wide-open struggle among a slew of weak, unknown, and anonymous Republicans to be Patty Murray’s sacrificial lamb.
While money isn’t the be-all and end-all of politics, the campaign-funds gap between Patty and her putative opponents is so vast that it’s almost humorous. According to the Federal Election Commission, 13 people have filed to challenge Patty Murray for her Senate seat. (No, Dino Rossi isn’t one of them.) Of those, 11 indicate that they are Republicans, one says he represents no party, and one is shown as “unknown”. Nine of them are serious enough as candidates that they submitted 1Q/2010 financial reports to the FEC. To give you an idea of the seriousness-gap between Patty and her opponents, consider the following table, showing cumulative numbers for the entire group:
| Candidate Name | Party | Through | Contributions | Own funds | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Akers | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $276,323 | $237,528 | $89,970 | $237,528 |
| Don Benton | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $120,929 | ----- | $103,694 | ----- |
| William Chovil | Unknown | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- |
| Arthur Coday Jr | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $61,606 | $18,025 | $26,313 | $18,025 |
| Richard Curtis | None | 1Q/2010 | $5,853 | ----- | $1,549 | ----- |
| Clint Didier | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $351,518 | $4,800 | $151,072 | $834 |
| Daniel LeBlanc | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $100 | ----- | $100 | ----- |
| James Mercer | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $3,599 | $1,644 | $1,473 | ----- |
| Patricia Murray | Democrat | 1Q/2010 | $5,471,308 | ----- | $5,916,995 | ----- |
| Rodney Rieger | Republican | 4Q/2009 | $15 | $15 | $15 | ----- |
| Sean Salazar | Republican | 4Q/2009 | $52,998 | $24,462 | $96 | $5,644 |
| Edward Torres | Republican | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- |
| Chris Widener | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $56,614 | ----- | $12,308 | ----- |
| Craig Williams | Republican | 1Q/2010 | $18,753 | $8,250 | $2,626 | ----- |
“Motley” doesn’t begin to describe this bunch. Only ex-NFLer Didier and State Senator Benton have over $100K in cash-on-hand, and Didier’s bankroll is a mere 2.5% of the pile Patty has amassed. Akers is completely self-funded, and both Coday and Salazar have put in a serious chunk of their meager funds.
Were Rossi to join the crowd, he would certainly finish second in the Top Two primary. After all, he’s the only one in the bunch who’s even slightly known beyond his own family circle. But he’d still lose to Senator Murray, and he’d undoubtedly cause the NRSC and corporate scumbags to flush some of their money down the toilet of his campaign. He’d lose (semi)respectably, which would place him quite a bit closer to Patty than any of the rest of them.
